Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Inflation Report S. Africa Declines Comment on Zimbabwe Aid Report

The office of South Africa’s President Kgalema Motlanthe declined to comment on a report that Zimbabwe will request $1 billion in assistance when a delegation from that country arrives in South Africa today.
Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister, will hold talks with Motlanthe, where he will seek $1 billion to revive his country’s economy, the Johannesburg-based Business Day newspaper reported today, without saying where it got the information.

“We did not call the meeting so they can answer that question,” Thabo Masebe, a spokesman for Motlanthe, said in an interview. “We are here and waiting,” he said, adding that the meeting will take place at 1 p.m. local time in Cape Town today.
Zimbabwe has suffered a decade of recession and has the world’s highest inflation rate, last officially estimated at 231 million percent in July last year. The country is short of goods ranging from motor fuel to staple foods.
“If it’s on the agenda the prime minister will say something in Cape Town today,” Nelson Chamisa, Zimbabwe’s communications minister, said in an interview today.
George Sibotshiwe, a spokesman for Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change party, said he was unaware of any deal while Joseph Mungwari, a spokesman for Tsvangirai, didn’t answer calls to his mobile phone.


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Financial Services Companies

US Financial 15 Split Corp Suspension of Dividends

US Financial 15 Split Corp. ("the Company") announces that it has suspended its regular monthly dividends effectively immediately for Priority Equity ("Preferred") shareholders in order to preserve cash and to assist in rebuilding the net asset value in an attempt to meet longer term objectives. Since the Preferred shares are cumulative, this suspended dividend (and all subsequent dividends not paid) will be accrued to the benefit of the Preferred shareholders and recorded as a liability in the Company's net asset value. Also, there will not be a distribution paid to Class A Shares for February 27, 2009 as per the Prospectus which states no regular monthly dividends or other distributions will be paid on the Class A Shares in any month as long as the net asset value per unit is equal to or less than $15.00. The net asset value as of February 13, 2009 was $4.17 and has been adversely impacted by the significant declines in the US financial services companies held in the portfolio.

Since inception Class A shareholders have received a total of $3.70 per share and Preferred shareholders have received a total of $2.08 per share, for a combined total of $5.78.
The Company invests in a portfolio consisting of 15 U.S. financial services companies as follows: American Express, American International Group, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fifth Third Bancorp, The Goldman Sachs Group, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank, SunTrust Banks, U.S. Bancorp, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo. Shares held within the Portfolio are expected to range between 4-8% in weight but may vary from time to time.

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London Home Prices Crisis Drags Down More Than Just Real Estate Prices

An industry that prospered by piggybacking on the international property boom is struggling to stay afloat now that sales are plummeting.
The number of companies offering support and advice to those buying real estate far from home burgeoned between 2000 and 2007 as investors, retirees and would-be vacation home owners snapped up houses and apartments from Brazil to Bulgaria. They ranged from experts to translate foreign legal documents to decorators who chose sheets and towels for beachfront villas.
But as the downturn spread in the wake of the U.S. subprime crisis last year, the sector took a painful pounding, with many companies cutting staff in hopes of surviving.
"What we've seen is a bloodbath," said John Howell, the senior partner at the London-based International Law Partnership, describing the decline in international sales.
At his firm, which provides legal and financial advice to people buying foreign homes, real estate-related enquiries have fallen to between 50 and 60 a week, down from 250 a week in 2006 and 2007, he said. Property business has halved since last August, just before the financial crisis hit, he said.
The firm expects to lay off two or three of its more than 20 property lawyers soon, and already has moved five of them to real estate litigation, Mr. Howell said. That sector has boomed as deals and developments gone bad give rise to lawsuits, but the six- or seven-fold increase in that business has not been enough to make up for lost sales work, he said.
Things are even worse for British-based Villapac, which for the last five years has been selling all- inclusive furniture packages — everything from sofas to silverware — for vacation and rental homes in Spain, Portugal and Morocco. The average sale used to be around 9,000 euros, or $11,600, now it's around 7,000 euros.

"It's brutal. Disastrous," said Mark Wilman, the company's owner. "We're fighting every day" to keep the business alive.
Villapac has laid off 75 of its 100 workers in four waves of cutbacks since August and has closed showrooms, he said. Earnings in January will total around 100,000 pounds, or $140,860, compared with 650,000 pounds in January 2008, with new customers hard to find and many of those who paid deposits trying to back out as they cancel or postpone pending property purchases.

Mr. Wilman said he was trying to reorient the company toward selling furniture to retailers, rather than individual home buyers. "The business we did with the small investor is finished," he said. "I think it will be a long time before it will come back."
Help has long been available for those buying homes internationally, but it only became a big business after 2000, when the number of people seeking properties outside their home country jumped sharply, said Adam Samuel, director of the real estate Web site nubricks.com. "Mass market-wise, all of these industries are relatively new," he said.
Now, "many companies are in dire straits," Mr. Samuel said, adding that he regularly hears of companies in the sector going under.
The biggest drop-off in business has been among investors who once saw international property markets as a place to make easy money, said Simon Conn, of the British-based company Conti Financial, which connects buyers with overseas mortgages.
With prices dropping nearly everywhere, investors like that are now hard to find, he said.
Mr. Conn said business was off about 40 percent from a year ago, with many inquiries now coming from those who want to refinance homes rather than from new buyers.
Those who are buying, now mostly people looking for someplace sunny to retire or cash-rich families hoping for a bargain on a vacation home, are far more cautious, he said, adding, "People are being more selective now, they're not rushing in and buying the cheap properties, they ask more questions."
Adding to the trouble is the pound's slide against the euro, which makes Continental purchases more expensive for British buyers, who have been the largest segment of international house-hunters for decades.
Sales volume and prices have fallen most precipitously in the cutting-edge markets that international buyers entered most recently, countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Egypt and Turkey, where investors sought to turn quick profits. They have slumped more slowly or stabilized in more traditional destinations still seen as relatively safe, places like France, Spain and Italy, as well as Mexico for American buyers.
Simon Greenwood, whose company, A Life in Puglia, is based in that southern Italian region and helps English speakers find and buy homes there, said business at the end of 2008 was off by nearly a third. Since then, it has ticked up again following a new publicity campaign, but he said he feared for the future, as many potential buyers are just watching and waiting.

"The people with money are thinking, 'Maybe if I hang around for six months, prices will go down even more,'" he said.
Mr. Greenwood and his partner, Charlotte Senior, started the business in 2006 to give up their fast- paced London lives for a quieter Italian existence. They charge 2 percent of a home's purchase price, up to 200,000 euros; and an additional 1 percent on anything over that amount.
Paul Collins, property editor at the real estate Web site buyassociation.co.uk, said he was optimistic that while individual companies might fold, the hard economic times will not kill the entire industry.
"It's going to reflect how the international property market is going to be when we get to the other side of this downturn," he said. "The companies that are left are going to be very high quality, they're going to be lean, they're going to be able to give customers value."


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Chinalco revamp as row heats up

JUST one week after striking a milestone $30.3 billion deal with Rio Tinto, Chinese giant Chinalco has replaced its chairman.
Xiong Weiping takes over from Xiao Yaqing, who has overseen Chinalco's international expansion since 2002.
It will now be Mr Xiong's task to convince the Australian Government to grant approval for the Rio investment.

The political row over the Chinalco tie-up reached new heights yesterday, amid calls for the Senate to launch an inquiry into China's increasing presence in Australia's vital resources sector.
Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce urged the Federal Government to consider tightening the Foreign Investment Review Board's regulations covering Chinese government-backed investment in local mining companies.
"This is an economic question about giving another government a stake in Australian resources, our biggest wealth generator," Senator Joyce said.
"This is not being parochial about foreign investment, it is about the ownership of Australian resources being handed to another government."
Senator Joyce needs support from five Greens as well as his coalition colleagues to start an inquiry.
The government-owned Chinalco has agreed to buy $11.2 billion in convertible bonds and $19.1 billion in iron ore, aluminium and copper assets from Rio.

Treasurer Wayne Swan last week moved to change the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act to allow for greater government oversight of such investments.
In other developments, Fortescue Metals denied reports that China Investment Corp-backed Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Group was in the final stages of negotiating a $3 billion investment in the iron ore miner to be unveiled next week.
The investment talks were "incomplete" and did not "warrant disclosure", Fortescue said in a statement lodged with the ASX.
Speaking to journalists in Beijing, Valin general manager Li Jianguo said the company still had concerns over Fortescue's level of debt.
"We haven't hired a banker on this because the talks are still in a very initial stage," Mr Li said. "We do have concerns that they have rather high debt levels."
Fortescue, which sold shares in December to pay bills, wants to resume expansion after postponing plans due to the credit crisis and tumbling commodities demand.
Meanwhile, Baosteel chairman Xu Lejiang hosed down speculation that the Chinese steelmaker was also in talks to invest in the miner.


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Chinese companies bag Melamchi tunnel contract

REPUBLICA

KATHMANDU, Feb 20: The government awarded the contract to construct the tunnel of Melamchi Drinking Water Project (MDWP) on Thursday.
Officials of the MDWP and representatives from a group of two Chinese companies China Railway 15 Group Corporation and China CMIC Engineering Corporation signed the deal.
As per the agreement, the tunnel needs to be completed by 2013. The 26.3 kilometer long tunnel is to pump 170 million liters of water every day from Melamchi River in Sindhupalchowk district to Sundarijal in Kathmandu.

The selected Chinese companies proposed the total cost around Rs. 4.28 billion, which is 11.14 percent less than the estimated cost. Initially 20 companies applied for the contract. However, only four of the companies were qualified for the final bids.
The government also has a plan to pump additional about 350 million liters of water a day to Kathmandu from the same project in the next phase.


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Thursday, February 19, 2009

UK auto sales Stocks in Europe, Asia Climb; Barclays, ThyssenKrupp Advance

Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, trimming their weekly decline, on speculation that governments will expand efforts to revive the economy and rescue banks. U.S. index futures fluctuated between gains and losses.
Barclays Plc, the U.K.’s third-biggest bank, and ING Groep NV gained more than 2 percent amid speculation the White House will help mortgage borrowers. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. jumped 9 percent in Sydney as the country’s senate passed a $28 billion stimulus package. ThyssenKrupp AG rallied 3.6 percent after Germany’s largest steelmaker posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
The MSCI World Index climbed for the first time in four days, adding 0.8 percent to 844.61 at 8:18 a.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed markets has lost 3 percent this week as companies from Electricite de France SA to Diageo Plc posted disappointing results and some investors speculated U.S. measures won’t pull the global economy out of a recession.
“The market is very focused on the stimulus plans and we are waiting for details,” Pierre-Yves Gauthier, founding partner of Alphavalue SAS in Paris, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Governments have taken charge of the situation. They are taking steps, even if it takes time for the measures to take effect.”
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The benchmark for U.S. equities yesterday recovered from a 3.1 percent tumble in the final hour of trading as banks recouped losses.

Asia, Europe
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time in five days, adding 1.1 percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 1.4 percent as all 19 industry groups advanced.
The Stoxx 600 is still down 2.7 percent this week, poised for its first weekly loss since Jan. 23. The gauge had rallied 4.3 percent in the first six days of February on optimism that global stimulus packages, a financial-rescue plan from Barack Obama’s administration and interest-rate cuts would help lift the U.S., Europe and Japan out of recessions.
The Obama administration’s housing plan will use government money to help reduce interest rates for struggling borrowers, while asking lawmakers to approve more ways to modify mortgages, according to a person briefed on the proposal. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner intends to make the plan public in coming days, possibly within a week, said the person, who declined to be identified before the announcement.
“This would clearly have the ability to reduce bad debt so the banks rallied hard” in the U.S., Matthew Buckland, a dealer at CMC Markets in London, wrote. “European markets will therefore follow.”

Barclays, ING
Barclays increased 3.5 percent to 108.7 pence while ING, the biggest Dutch financial-services company, added 2.1 percent to 5.99 euros.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group jumped 9 percent to A$12.96 in Sydney. Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia’s largest investment bank, added 2.9 percent to A$24.08.
The country’s Senate approved in a second vote a A$42 billion ($28 billion) stimulus package aimed at ensuring the economy doesn’t enter its first recession in 18 years. ThyssenKrupp added 3.6 percent to 18.09 euros. The steelmaker said first-quarter profit slumped 59 percent to 168 million euros ($215.5 million) as demand dropped at the quickest pace since World War II and it wrote down the value of inventories. That beat the 135 million-euro median of seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales fell 6.1 percent to 11.5 billion euros.
STMicroelectronics NV climbed 4 percent to 4.35 euros. Europe’s biggest semiconductor maker was raised to “neutral” from “sell” at UBS AG. The bank lifted its recommendation on European semiconductor shares and technology hardware shares to “overweight,” saying valuations are attractive.

Valeo Earnings
Valeo SA slipped 1.2 percent to 10.28 euros. France’s second-largest auto-parts maker said it posted a loss in the fourth quarter, as customers including PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault SA slashed production amid a global auto-sales slump.
The net loss was 313 million euros ($404 million), compared with net income of 50 million euros a year earlier, the company said. Analysts had anticipated a 317 million-euro loss, based on the median of four estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
London Stock Exchange Group Plc gained 4 percent to 489 pence. The company named Xavier Rolet to succeed Clara Furse as chief executive officer, bringing an end to her eight-year reign at Europe’s oldest independent bourse.

Under Furse, LSE’s first female CEO, the bourse fought off five takeover offers in two years and bought the operator of the Milan stock exchange in 2007. While LSE has remained independent, rivals including Euronext NV, Deutsche Boerse AG and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. have forged alliances, adding to the range of products they offer and giving them greater size. LSE’s shares lost 74 percent last year on concern falling stock prices and competition from electronic exchanges will erode earnings.

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International Air Transport Association

Air France to Cut 2,000 Jobs After EU505 Million Loss

- Air France-KLM Group, Europe’s biggest airline, said it will eliminate as many as 2,000 jobs after lower ticket revenues and dwindling cargo volumes pushed it to a third-quarter loss.
The cuts at the Air France unit will be achieved by scrapping posts when people leave and no one will be fired, spokesman Nicolas Petteau said today. The company had a 505 million-euro ($653 million) net loss in the three months ended Dec. 31 versus a year-earlier profit of 139 million euros.
Air France joins British Airways Plc, Ryanair Holdings Plc and Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. in slashing jobs this week as the industry is buffeted by crumbling demand for air travel. The Paris-based company will also cut 1.2 billion euros from capital spending and reduce capacity by 2 percent as it targets a positive operating profit in fiscal 2009.
“I’m encouraged by the moves they’re making to protect their financial position,” said NCB analyst Neil Glynn, who recommends buying Air France stock. “Airlines globally, the flag carriers in particular, are firefighting to try and weather the current storm.”
Air France rose as much as 7.3 percent to 8.30 euros and was trading at 8.15 euros as of 10:35 a.m. in Paris. The stock has declined 11 percent this year.
“Activity in the third quarter reflected the increasing severity of the economic downturn,” Air France said in a statement. “We will continue to assess all our costs in order to achieve additional savings wherever possible.”

Cargo Collapse
The three-month loss came after cargo traffic declined almost 13 percent and tumbling oil prices compelled the company to reduce fuel surcharges to passengers, hurting ticket revenue.
While passenger traffic increased 3.4 percent in the quarter, it slipped 1.9 percent in January, when the drop in cargo traffic accelerated to 23 percent.
Air France said contracts to fix the cost of fuel purchases had a “negative impact” following the 76 percent drop in crude since July and that it would unwind those positions. The carrier will subsequently be hedged on 43 percent of its energy needs for the 12 months through March 2010, a move that should cut the bill by 300 million euros to 5.5 billion euros, according to NCB’s Glynn.
Airlines globally are shedding jobs and routes to help combat losses that may reach $2.5 billion this year as traffic falls 3 percent, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Virgin, Ryanair Cuts
Richard Branson’s Crawley, England-based Virgin Atlantic said yesterday it may eliminate 600 posts across its business in order to “stay healthy” until economies revive. Ryanair, Europe’s biggest discount airline, said it will cut 200 jobs at its base in Dublin.
British Airways, Europe’s third-largest carrier, has cut more than 400 managers through voluntary severance and said Feb. 6 it will meet with unions to agree further reductions. SAS Group, the owner of Scandinavian Airlines, is making the deepest cuts, eliminating 3,000 jobs as it culls capacity by 20 percent and abandons ambitions to operate as a global carrier after more than a year of losses.
Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s second-biggest airline, said Feb. 3 that it would “react with necessary measures,” to maintain profit and that its business is “afflicted by higher than usual risks.”

Air France reported a 194 million-euro operating loss for the quarter after disclosing on Jan. 20 that the deficit for the period would be around 200 million euros. Analysts had predicted a loss of 217 million euros.

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Ryanair Virgin, Ryanair Cut 800 Jobs as Slump Squeezes Travel

Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. and discount carrier Ryanair Holdings Plc will cut as many as 800 jobs as the recession stifles demand for travel.
Virgin may eliminate 600 posts across its business, the Crawley, England-based company said in a statement today. Ryanair said it will scrap 200 jobs at its Dublin base, seek pay cuts from workers and remove four planes from the fleet.

Steve Ridgway, Virgin’s chief executive officer, said the airline needs to reduce headcount in order to “stay healthy” until economies revive. Ryanair counterpart Michael O’Leary blamed Ireland’s introduction of a new tourist tax from April for exacerbating the slump in demand.
Airlines worldwide are shedding jobs and routes to help combat losses that may exceed $2.5 billion this year as traffic falls 3 percent, according to the International Air Transport Association. Companies that support the industry are also suffering, with Swiss aircraft-maintenance provider SR Technics cutting 1,135 jobs as it closes its Dublin unit.
Ryanair fell 2.4 percent to 3.13 euros in the Irish capital, paring gains this year to 5.5 percent. Virgin Atlantic and Zurich-based SR Technics are closely held.
“Most airlines have been reducing capacity for some time and sooner or later that has to mean fewer staff,” said Douglas McNeill, an analyst at Blue Oar Securities in London. “While it is early days, if capacity is going to fall further there is scope for further job cuts.”

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SAS Group, the owner of Scandinavian Airlines, is making the most swingeing cuts, eliminating 3,000 jobs as it cuts capacity 20 percent and abandons ambitions to operate as a global carrier after more than a year of losses.
British Airways Plc, the U.K.’s biggest airline, has cut more than 400 managers through voluntary severance and said Feb. 6 it will meet with unions to agree further reductions.
Virgin said it will consult with workers on its planned cuts and will seek to avoid compulsory firings. The carrier has already frozen pay and offered employees unpaid leave.
“This latest announcement is a real blow for the loyal and hard working crew at Virgin,” the Unite trade union said in an e-mailed statement. “Unite has major concerns for the future of the aviation industry as the downturn in passenger numbers and ever increasing competition affects the U.K.’s major airlines.”

Pay Cuts
Ryanair’s plan will affect pilots, cabin crew and engineers, the company said in a statement. O’Leary will seek pay cuts of as much as 10 percent from workers, he said at a news conference in Dublin, blaming the new 10-euro travel tax for deterring price-sensitive customers from visiting Ireland.
Additional cuts in the company’s winter schedule from the city will be announced later. Ryanair last month reduced the number of aircraft, routes and flights to and from Shannon Airport in western Ireland starting on March 30.
Ryanair had a net loss of 118.8 million euros in the fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31 after fuel expenses rose. Still, the passenger total rose 11 percent last month from a year earlier as the recession prompted cost-conscious business people and tourists to switch to discount carriers.
SR Technics said in a statement that it’s closing the base at Dublin airport after the loss of major maintenance contracts made the business unsustainable.

The company, which employs 5,300 people, including those in Dublin, was once a unit of defunct carrier Swissair. It was later bought by private-equity firm 3i Group Plc before being sold to a United Arab Emirates-based group comprising Mubadala Development, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise and Istithmar World, according to Web site.
“We are fully aware of the difficult economic and labor market situation in Ireland and the personal implications of a closure for our staff in Dublin,” SR Technics CEO Bernd Kessler said in the statement.

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Who's Counting Bush's Mistakes?

Ralph Waldo Emerson said it best, "The louder he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons." And no administration in U.S. history has spoken louder, or as often, of its honor.
So let us count our spoons.

Emergency Management: They completely failed to manage the first large-scale emergency since 9/11. Despite all their big talk and hundreds of billions of dollars spent on homeland security over the past four years, this administration proved itself stunningly incompetent when faced with an actual emergency. (Katrina Relief Funds Squandered)
Fiscal Management: America is broke. No wait, we're worse than broke. In less than five years these borrow and spend-thrifts have nearly doubled our national debt, to a stunning $8.2 trillion. These are not your father's Republicans who treated public dollars as though they were an endangered species. These Republicans waste money in ways and in quantities that make those old tax and spend liberals of yore look like tight-fisted Scots.

This administration is so incompetent that you can just throw a dart at the front page of your morning paper and whatever story of importance it hits will prove my point.
Katrina relief: Eleven thousand spanking new mobile homes sinking into the Arkansas mud. Seems no one in the administration knew there were federal and state laws prohibiting trailers in flood zones. Oops. That little mistake cost you $850 million -- and counting.

Medicare Drug Program: This $50 billion white elephant debuted by trampling many of those it was supposed to save. The mess forced states to step in and try to save its own citizens from being killed by the administration's poorly planned and executed attempt to privatize huge hunks of the federal health safety net.
Afghanistan: Good managers know that in order to pocket the gains of a project, you have to finish it. This administration started out fine in Afghanistan. They had the Taliban and al Queda on the run and Osama bin Laden trapped in a box canyon. Then they were distracted by a nearby shiney object -- Iraq. We are now $75 billion out of pocket in Afghanistan and its sitting president still rules only within the confines of the nation's capital. Tribal warlords, the growing remnants of the Taliban and al Qaeda call the shots in the rest of the county.
Iraq: This ill-begotten war was supposed to only cost us $65 billion. It has now cost us over $300 billion and continues to suck $6 billion a month out of our children's futures. Meanwhile the three warring tribes Bush "liberated" are using our money and soldiers' lives to partition the country. The Shiites and Kurds are carving out the prime cuts while treating the once-dominant Sunnis the same way the Israelis treat the Palestinians, forcing them onto Iraq's version of Death Valley. Meanwhile Iran is increasingly calling the shots in the Shiite region as mullahs loyal to Iran take charge. (More)

Iran: The administration not only jinxed its Afghanistan operations by attacking Iraq, but also provided Iran both the rationale for and time to move toward nuclear weapons. The Bush administration's neocons' threats to attack Syria next only provided more support for religious conservatives within Iran who argued U.S. intentions in the Middle East were clear, and that only the deterrent that comes with nuclear weapons could protect them.
North Korea: Ditto. Also add to all the above the example North Korea set for Iran. Clearly once a country possesses nukes, the U.S. drops the veiled threats and wants to talk.
Social Programs: It's easier to get affordable -- even free -- American-style medical care, paid for with American dollars, if you are injured in Iraq, Afghanistan or are victims of a Pakistani earthquake, than if you live and pay taxes in the good old U.S.A. Nearly 50 million Americans can't afford medical insurance. Nevertheless the administration has proposed a budget that will cut $40 billion from domestic social programs, including health care for the working poor. The administration is quick to say that those services will be replaced by its "faith-based" programs. Not so fast...

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central bank Thai Central Bank Says Crisis in 2009 Less Severe Than 1997

- Thailand’s central bank said the nation’s economy will be able to better withstand the global credit crisis than in 1997 because of the resilience of local companies and banks.
“Since the last crisis, we have put in a lot of effort and energy to strengthen our system,” Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase, 59, said in an interview yesterday in Bangkok. “Our capability to withstand the storm is very much different than in 1997. Banks don’t have solvency or liquidity problems.”

Thailand and other export-dependent countries are cutting interest rates and rolling out stimulus packages to buoy consumption as their main markets in the U.S., Japan and Europe contract. The Bank of Thailand and the government plan to ease curbs on foreign ownership of local banks and consider new banking licenses to lure overseas investment and spur lending.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is also boosting spending and waiving taxes to spur expansion.
Tarisa said she still expects the economy to expand in 2009, even after a contraction in the fourth quarter of last year and probably another in the current period.
Gross domestic product may expand no more than 2 percent in 2009, the slowest pace since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the central bank said.
The economy probably contracted 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter and may shrink in the three months to March 31, the Finance Ministry said Jan. 29.
“This is the crisis that happened elsewhere and we don’t have a lot of control over it,” Tarisa said. “The effect will come through the trade channel. Now, we have to pin our hopes on domestic investment and consumption.”

Biggest Threat
The slowdown in global economic growth and the credit crunch have overtaken inflation as the biggest threat to Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, said Tarisa, who has led the bank since 2006 as the bank’s first female governor.
Abhisit, elected by parliament in December, plans to spend an extra 116.7 billion baht ($3.3 billion) on cash handouts to the elderly and free school supplies among other measures. The funds are in addition to 10 billion baht in tax breaks aimed at boosting property sales, supporting tourism and helping small businesses.
Loosening restrictions on foreign banks is aimed at “bringing benefits to the financial sector, to the consumers,” Tarisa said yesterday.
“The government’s measures can alleviate the problems, but they can’t solve them,” said Prasarn Trairatvorakul, president of Kasikornbank Pcl, the nation’s third-largest lender. “There are limitations.”

Worst Performance
Thailand’s benchmark equity SET Index posted its worst annual performance in 11 years in 2008, falling by almost 48 percent. This year, it has dropped another 2.1 percent.
Asian governments have unveiled more than $685 billion worth of stimulus measures to buffer their economies from the worst global recession since the 1930s. Singapore last month announced a $13.7 billion spending package, while Malaysia is planning a second round of measures after a $1.9 billion program outlined in November.
The Bank of Thailand has lowered its benchmark interest rate to 2 percent in cuts totaling 1.75 percentage points since December and “has the room” to continue cutting borrowing costs when policy makers next meet on Feb. 25, Tarisa said.

Slashing Costs
Thailand’s central bank is unlikely to lower borrowing costs to zero because the country is “not at the epicenter of the problem like the U.S. and the U.K.,” Tarisa said.
Consumer prices in Thailand dropped 0.4 percent from a year earlier in January, the first contraction since October 1999, and may decline in some months this year, Tarisa said.
The baht currency has extended last year’s 15 percent loss against the dollar on speculation a deepening economic slump will prompt foreigners to further trim their holdings. The baht, which has fallen 1.4 percent this year, was 0.1 percent lower at 35.16 per dollar as of 7:53 a.m. in Bangkok.

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